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Cake day: August 2nd, 2023

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  • I don’t need to guess. I know from having been to China and having talked to people.

    It’s mostly a combination of 3 things:

    1. Tons of infrastructure. If you decide to start manufacturing some random thing you can easily get all the stuff you need to get started.
    2. Regulations are generally very favorable to small startups and businesses. This is partly why so much of the stuff on Temu is crap.
    3. A huge population. That’s the main source of ultra cheap labor. Farmers in rural China can still make as little as $1.90 per day. All a factory owner needs to offer is more than that and they’ll have a line of applicants.


  • I think a lot of this is that Republicans used to follow what used to be the recommendations of the most prominent main-stream economists. We can judge that as foolish in hindsight, but, “let the economics experts handle the economy” is a fairly reasonable policy.

    2 big things changed. Republicans push more and more policies that economists consider dumb and economists have updated their models and recommendations based on new research. Even those old free market economists were not fans of tariffs and trade wars. It’s pretty hard to find an actual economist (like with a PhD from a respected econ school) who thinks wanton deregulation is a good idea.

    At the same time, Democrats still hold on to a few ideas that economists all agree are dumb. There’s tons of evidence that things like rent control and home purchase credits make housing problems worse.

    Democrats tend to support better economic policies than Republicans do but they support enough bad ones that it’s easy for Republicans to argue that the old status quo is correct.



  • I sincerely hope that Democrats do care.

    Like it or not, MAGA can currently take that attitude. They control the SC, both chambers of Congress, and the White House. If they decide to say, “Fsck it. We’ll ignore the Demorcrats,” they’ll still have all the process in place to enact their agenda.

    MAGA doesn’t need to analyze what went wrong during the election. They got everything they wanted.

    For at least the next 2 years, Democrats will be able to do nothing that Republicans don’t approve of. The law says that they get to set the standards.

    If Democrats want any chance of checking that power or reversing it at the next election, we are the ones who need to adapt.

    There’s an “ancient Chinese saying”, “卧 薪 尝 胆”. You don’t do it because it’s fun or because you obliged to, you do it so you can win next time.


  • That would be true if every one of those answers didn’t also strongly support AOC, Democrats, or Bernie.

    That’s the whole point of this exercise. A bunch of deep red voters citing Fox is expected and doesn’t tell us anything new. When a bunch of deep vlue voters do that, something is going on.

    We normally expect AOC and Bernie supporters to be very Blue. If Fox is resonating with those voters we should really be asking ourselves, “Why?”
    Why is it that some Democrats hear Fox News and immediately judge them as naked propaganda while other Democrats give them consideration?

    edit: grammar


  • Women’s Suffrage (and additional rights) and the Civil Rights movement both had many successes. They also used many tactics and strategies besides protests and that makes it hard to attribute their success to protests. That’s why I looked at the 10 largest protests in the US on Wikipedia. There’s obviously some subjectivity to which protests are the most salient but it’s fair to assume that a large number of those should actually be the most important protests. The fact that we didn’t see progress as a response to any of the biggest protests suggests that they don’t have much of an impact.

    I view the Firefly situation a bit differently too. We actually wanted them to bring Firefly back as a show. As near as I can tell Joss made the movie (which I agree was and still is awesome) because he loved the story and wanted to finish it. He may have been uplifted by the support of the fans but he didn’t give in to anyone’s demands. Fans kept badgering him to pick the series up after the movie and argued that the success of the movie proved that the series would make money but he told us that wasn’t possible because too many of the actors where on other projects. I have to admit that Summer Glau made a pretty good terminator.

    Ghandi is an interesting case. He also used many tactics and strategies beyond protest and he was dealing with a very different situation. Their oppressor was thousands of miles away and got a bit tied up with bigger problems. There is also a strong academic consensus that he likely delayed Indian independence.




  • Maybe the point of the protest is to bring awareness to the public?

    Maybe. How useful is “awareness”?

    When I look at the biggest protests in the US there’s plenty of awareness about around all the biggest protests. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_and_demonstrations_in_the_United_States_by_size

    Going down that list, it’s hard to find evidence that the awareness got us anywhere.

    1. George Floyd - We keep saying his name. Has there been any change in police violence or accountability?
    2. Earth day - We’ve been talking about this forever and we keep breaking records on extreme weather events.
    3. 2017 Women’s March - We just elected the chief pussy grabber.
    4. March for Our Lives - Guns are still everywhere.
    5. 2018 Women’s March - See number 3.
    6. RickyRenunicia - I have to pass on this one. I have no idea what the state of corruption in PR is.
    7. Great American Boycott - Democrats switched to agreeing with Republicans on immigration.
    8. LGB - You can reasonably argue that sexuality related rights have improved. It’s not clear that this protest was a particular catalyst for that. If we want to pin things on a single event, Stonewall probably had a bigger impact.
    9. Anti Nuclear - More countries than ever believe they need nukes to survive. We’re now unironically talking about the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
    10. Million Man March - See number 1

    I could go on, but the track record for the 10 biggest protests isn’t great.



  • I’m sure that a few, very dedicated, women are doing this.

    It’s unlikely to be widespread. Sex is one of the most powerful drives humans have. We generally have a terrible track record of trying to convince people to avoid or even delay sex. Even when people believe that their eternal soul is on the line they keep having sex. That’s exactly why all the “abstinence only” policies fails so spectacularly.

    There are cases where voluntarily giving up something important has led to change. Hunger strikes are the prime example of this. They can have the affect of drawing attention to a matter and raising sympathy.



  • Not rude at all. The original question is why certain people behave in a certain way.

    The first point addresses the direct reason why some voters would refuse to vote for Harris due to her stance on Israel. When people believe they are being harmed they tend to focus all their attention on the immediate harm. It’s not a logical choice but people don’t act logically in these circumstances.

    As an example of this, I’d offer our response to 9/11. The entire nation came together to pass the PATRIOT act and start a war in Afghanistan. There’s no logic in passing a bill that was so long that no one in congress could have read it before voting on it. It’s hard to argue for the logic of invading Afghanistan. There wasn’t really an objective (besides “get OBL”, who we later ended up assassinating in an other country) and in retrospect it’s certainly clear that it caused far more harm than good. But we were in an emotional state. The people watching their relatives getting bombed in Gaza are in a similarly emotional state.

    The second point addresses why Democrats attempts to convince them are failing so spectacularly. Getting someone to vote for your preferred candidate is an exercise in persuasion. Much has been written about the art of persuasion and “insult your audience,” isn’t generally a recommended technique. One counterexample is “pickup artists”. They theorize that by insulting or “negging” women they can motivate the woman to counter the insult by seeking the mans approval. While this does work on some small percentage of women, the vast majority are more motivated to find their mace.




  • Charity is about who benefits, not about who decides how to provide that benefit.

    The idea of choosing a charity based on the donor’s will of how it will get spent describes almost all types of charity. If someone donates to any charity at all, they have made a choice on how to allocate their resources and they just take it on faith that that’s the people who need it the most.

    Furthermore, any given dollar of his can only be spent once. The money he spent on himself enriches himself. It’s a considerable amount of money but it’s a tiny fraction of the money he controls. Any dollar he gives away can’t be spent to enrich himself.

    Finally, Buffet has donated over $57 billion. How is he supposed to distribute that? Fly a plane around the country and dump cash out the window? Send a huge check to the IRS? Give it all to your favorite charity? The obvious answer is that he sets up an organization that will analyze existing charities for need and effectiveness and then distributes his assets accordingly.


  • I’ve been thinking about this exact question recently.

    My Austrian grandmother and her sister were working class teenagers during the war. They couldn’t realistically have done anything to stop the Nazis. They didn’t really do much to help but since they were seamstresses they secretly snuck the Jewish family in the building some sewing supplies. It wasn’t much and they stopped when they were told that someone had reported them to the Gestapo. Their experience during the war was dodging bombs and trying to find something to eat.

    None of that matters. When I was a kid growing up in the US people regularly made Nazi jokes as soon as they found out about my heritage. Nobody was willing to entertain any ideas that maybe those civilians shouldn’t have been held accountable.

    History judged all of Germany and Austria harshly. It judged the civilians harshly and it judged their descendants harshly.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144717
    The world is watching.