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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • I have a suspicion that all of the layers of “Elon management” at Tesla and SpaceX have given him the idea that he’s a brilliant innovator; he gives them all his outlandish ideas and they get filtered into (normally) reasonable plans, and they guide him down the path they want him to go down while he thinks the good idea is his. And those companies are both doing well, so clearly his style works, at least in his mind.

    But then he bought twitter, which didn’t have anyone devoted to protecting the company from him, and it’s all going to shit.






  • Beyond that, it’ll try to summarize a book, but it often can’t do so successfully, although it will act like it has. Give it a try on something that is even a little bit obscure and it can’t really give you good information. I tried with Blindsight, which is not something that’s in the popular culture, but also a Hugo nominee, so not completely obscure. It knew who the characters were, and had a general sense of the tone, but it completely fabricated every major plot point that I asked about. Did the same with A Head Full of Ghosts, which is more well known but still not something everyone has read, and it did the same thing.

    One thing I found that’s really fun is to ask it a question and then follow up with something like “Are you sure about that?” It’ll almost always correct itself and make up something else. It’ll go one step further and incorporate details you ask about. Give it a prompt like “Are you sure this character died of natural causes? I thought they were killed by Bob” and it will very frequently say you’re right and make up a story along those lines that’s plausible within the text. It doesn’t work on really popular stuff; you can’t convince it that Optimus Prime saves Luke Skywalker in RotJ, but anything even a little less well known and it’ll tell you details that it’s making up whole cloth with complete confidence.



  • He has a lot of narcissistic traits. I’m sure he was expecting a deluge of “of course we love you, you’re a genius and real life Tony Stark, please make our bird app better!” That kind of genuine adoration is one of the few things he can’t just buy outright, and he used to get it, but that well has been drying up as other car companies catch up to Tesla on EVs and their own products stagnate or get worse. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s last big public event was a rocket blowing up, which they could try to spin, but it also destroyed their launch pad because they ignored lessons that NASA learned in the 60’s. I’m sure in his mind all the bad press as people have started to realize what a shithead he is was just haters who were jealous of him, so surely if he just gives his fans an opportunity to express their opinions he’ll get lots of positive responses, right?




  • There are three drinks you can call a martini:

    • A martini is gin and vermouth, maybe with some bitters if you like
    • A vodka martini is vodka and vermouth, bitters again optional
    • A vesper martini is gin, vodka, and lillet blanc
    • Any of the above can be made “dirty” with olive brine if you want

    Anything else is a cocktail in a martini glass. No shade if you like apple schnapps, lemon juice, and vodka, drink what you like, but it’s not a martini.







  • It’s not a few seconds, it’s a very small fraction of a second. The Thresher imploded in 1/20th of a second at 730 meters. We don’t know for sure how far down Titan was when it imploded, but based on the time they lost signal, I’m guessing around 3500 meters, so we’re talking about 4-5 times as much force. Plus the hull was made of extremely brittle carbon fiber, so it wouldn’t buckle at all, it would just collapse all at once. It’s hard to overstate how much force we’re talking about; at that depth, it’s about equivalent to building the Empire State building out of lead and sitting it on top of the ship with no other supports.

    It’s not just that they didn’t have time to drown; it would have imploded so quickly that they would have been dead before their brains even had time to process that something was happening.



  • Worth pointing out that only the end caps were metal (and titanium at that, which is already brittle), while the bulk of the hull was carbon fiber, which doesn’t gradually fatigue bend and buckle, it fails catastrophically.

    Also, they lost signal at 1 hour and 45 minutes into a ~2 hour dive. I don’t know how much their dive rate varied, but if we assume it was effectively constant, that puts them at ~3500 meters at LOS.

    Combining those two points, two to three years after building the ship, they identified cyclic fatigue in the carbon fiber that reduced their calculated rating to 3000 meters. Since that’s not enough to get to Titanic, they completely rebuilt the ship, two years ago.

    So yeah, I think you’re right. With the public facts available, I think the most likely scenario is the carbon fiber hull was fatiguing again, they decided to trust their acoustic/strain monitoring system that they believed would give them enough warning to resurface (which the guy they fired in 2018 said might only give them warnings milliseconds before there was a problem), and it failed somewhere below 3000 meters.