As Janeway would have it, temporal mechanics can make our heads hurt.
Several of us here are still wrapping our minds around the implications of SNW 2 x 3 Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow for the Prime Universe timeline. The Romulan agent confirmed that key events in history have been resilient to temporal incursions, but their exact dates may change as time heals itself.
While this appears to warrant some deep dives on c/Daystrom Institute once we’ve had a bit of time to process this onscreen confirmation a bit more, I thought to look back to see what astrophysicist and Star Trek science consultant Dr Erin MacDonald has said previously on this point.
At the main link above, there is an episode of MacDonald’s Astrometric Episode Club where she reviews the temporal science of Voyager Relativity and DS9 Children of Time that appears on point.
There’s a few passing references to other time travel incidents along the way. These touch on the resilience of time, not least the causality loop in First Contact where the Borg incursion into the 21st century causes Enterprise to return and get Cochrane into space when needed even though the events weren’t quite as they were originally. The timeline is preserved in this essential key event no matter the details.
There’s also a report on Time Travel on StarTrek.com about an STLV 2019 presentation by Dr Erin MacDonald. (The piece itself was written by a professor of physics and astronomy.)