• Jay@sh.itjust.works
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    33
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    While Michael’s assertion of a 50% chance of winning the race seems logical from his subjective viewpoint of “winning or not winning”, it’s mathematically incorrect. In a race with five equally skilled runners, the probability of any one runner winning is 1/5, or 20%. Michael’s simplification of the outcomes doesn’t correctly calculate the probability and indicates a possible misunderstanding of how to calculate odds.

    Yes, this was made with ChatGPT. No, I’m not fun at parties.

  • ShunkW@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    30
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    This is an old running meme in the hearthstone community. No matter the question, 50/50 it either happens or it doesn’t

    • TokyoMonsterTrucker@lemmy.dbzer0.com
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      17
      arrow-down
      3
      ·
      1 year ago

      That’s actually the best possible answer as it’s a deeply stupid question. To many uncontrolled variables for a simple probability question.

      Who are the other runners? If it’s Usain Bolt vs. a 4th grader, the probability of the 4th grader winning approaches zero.

      • xavier666@lemm.ee
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        1 year ago

        Assume there is a Michael, who on race day was mysteriously cloned 4 times in a perfect manner such that biologically and psychologically they are a perfect copy to the original. So there are now 4 Michaels plus one proto Michael.

        Now they are put to a 100m race on a standard race track. Assume that the universe has normal randomness in wind and temperature variation. What is the probability that proto Michael wins the race?

        • wumpus@latte.isnot.coffee
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          1 year ago

          Still not enough info. The race is legally a tie if the times are within a certain (I think a millisecond) interval, and with runners this similar in ability, the probability that nobody wins is non-zero.

          • xavier666@lemm.ee
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            1 year ago

            The randomness in the air molecules are enough to case minor variation in finish timings. I think I should add that the observer can see the finish line with an accuracy of one Planck length and that observation uses a mysterious method which avoids Heisenburgs uncertainty principle. That should make the question well-defined 😆

        • MonkderZweite@feddit.ch
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          edit-2
          1 year ago

          10%. With exact clones it would be 0%, a draw. But with random influences, either of them has a 50% chance.

          And /s if i’m wrong.

  • jsonborne@lemmy.ml
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    13
    ·
    1 year ago

    This is a huge meme in the old school RuneScape community. Some important drops are as rare as 1/5000 but people always say “you either get the drop or you don’t”

  • Fushuan [he/him]@lemm.ee
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    2
    ·
    edit-2
    1 year ago

    Either wins or it doesnt are the two possible outcomes, their chances of happenning being 50% or different is a separate matter.

    The answer is that we can’t know because each of those can have different skill levels. However, given that this seems to be a question t prove knowledge about odds of 1 in 5, let’s assume that they are all equally skilled, then it’s 1/5 = 20%.

    No, this wasn’t made with ChatGPT. I don’t go to parties.